According to @StockMarketNerd, when price action looks inexplicably weak, it may either be an opportunity or a warning that forward profit estimates are fragile and will be cut; in that case, a falling stock is not getting cheaper on forward multiples and is likely not more compelling. Source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Nov 12, 2025. According to @StockMarketNerd, traders should validate setups by: checking consensus EPS/EBITDA revision momentum, recomputing forward P/E after estimate changes, and monitoring guidance downgrades—if estimates fall faster than price, the forward multiple can expand, signaling a value trap rather than a bargain. Source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Nov 12, 2025. According to @StockMarketNerd, this principle also applies when evaluating crypto-exposed equities, where assuming “cheaper” on price alone can mislead if forward earnings assumptions are deteriorating. Source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Nov 12, 2025.

According to @StockMarketNerd, 12 late-cycle warning signs now visible include obsession with year-to-date return charts, “investing is easy” narratives, questioning Berkshire’s relevance, normalization of 20x sales multiples, tolerance for pre-revenue business models, $10B+ firms with weak HQs and no scalability, trading equity rights for revenue, loss-making companies signing $300B commitments, the return of SPAC promoters, far-out stretch targets to justify prices, constant capital raising with insider selling, and hostility toward skeptics (Source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Oct 6, 2025 https://twitter.com/StockMarketNerd/status/1975220593231335532). Traders can translate this checklist into risk controls by scrutinizing high-multiple and pre-profit names, monitoring insider activity and capital raises, and being cautious of story-driven deals—an approach that also helps crypto participants evaluate froth in token sales and revenue-less narratives (Source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Oct 6, 2025 https://twitter.com/twitter.com/StockMarketNerd/status/1975220593231335532).

According to Bobby Ong, the referenced company produced roughly $4 billion in revenue with only $12 million in profit, with revenue up about $3 billion while profits fell by more than half; the firm is going public. Source: Bobby Ong. Based on those figures, the implied net margin is approximately 0.3% ($12m/$4b) and incremental margins were negative over the reported period, indicating deteriorating operating leverage. Source: Bobby Ong (figures). Given negligible earnings, traders evaluating the listing should anchor on price-to-sales rather than P/E when benchmarking potential valuation against crypto-exposed equities. Source: Bobby Ong (figures). An additional public crypto company expands sector comparables and liquidity for event-driven strategies around listing and lockup milestones. Source: Bobby Ong.

According to Compounding Quality on Twitter, an investor who bought the S&P 500 at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.3x in 1917 and sold at a P/E of 34x in 1999 would have achieved an 11.6% annual return, with only 2.3% per year attributable to P/E expansion. The majority of returns stemmed from earnings growth and reinvestment by the underlying companies (Source: Terry Smith via @QCompounding, May 28, 2025). This highlights the crucial role of fundamental growth over valuation multiples, a lesson relevant for crypto traders assessing the importance of utility and network growth versus speculative multiple expansion in digital asset markets.